Will Chinggis Warriors Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $671 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$670.86
-$0.34
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 44%
Freshness
Late
78h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.9¢ | $148.05 | $147.98 | -$0.07 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $147.72 | $147.65 | -$0.07 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.93 | $74.89 | -$0.04 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.91 | -$0.03 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.93 | -$0.02 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.93 | -$0.02 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $44.96 | $44.93 | -$0.02 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | — 0-13 (13) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 28% 826-2133 (2959) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.79 | $5.79 | -$0 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
Invested
$148.05
Value
$147.98
PnL
-$0.07
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
Invested
$147.72
Value
$147.65
PnL
-$0.07
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.89
PnL
-$0.04
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.91
PnL
-$0.03
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.93
PnL
-$0.02
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.93
PnL
-$0.02
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$44.96
Value
$44.93
PnL
-$0.02
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
28%
826-2133 (2959)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.79
Value
$5.79
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.