Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 23¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$286.56

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,727

Combined PnL+$302.55

Yes3 traders

Total Value$51.94

Total Shares216

Combined PnL-$15.99

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	No	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$302.55	— 7-2 (9)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.1¢	$60.42	$46.65	-$13.78	32% 4493-9634 (14127)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.4¢	$11.83	$4.18	-$2.16	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.15	$1.11	-$0.05	40% 174-265 (439)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$1,260.49

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$302.55

Record

—

7-2 (9)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.42

Value

$46.65

PnL

-$13.78

Record

32%

4493-9634 (14127)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.83

Value

$4.18

PnL

-$2.16

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.05

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.