Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between -0.9% and -0.5%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 5.5¢ · $11 held · ends Jan 10, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$11.45
-$3.75
Research grade
AvoidYes at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GI GingerMcKenna<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $11 | $10.99 | -$0.01 | 34% 3942-7612 (11554) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $0.7 | $0.38 | -$0.32 | 57% 41453-31224 (72677) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $2.14 | $0.05 | -$2.09 | 22% 1864-6615 (8479) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $1.36 | $0.03 | -$1.33 | 16% 415-2225 (2640) |
Invested
$11
Value
$10.99
PnL
-$0.01
Record
34%
3942-7612 (11554)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$0.32
Record
57%
41453-31224 (72677)
Invested
$2.14
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$2.09
Record
22%
1864-6615 (8479)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.33
Record
16%
415-2225 (2640)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.