Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jan 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.45

Combined PnL

-$419.33

Smart Money Entry

8.1¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$1.45

Total Shares2,899

Combined PnL-$419.33

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$60.71	$0.45	-$60.26	43% 3031-3985 (7016)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$77	$0.39	-$76.62	59% 10657-7345 (18002)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	$0.22	$0.22	-$42.83	49% 8173-8423 (16596)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$26.31	$0.13	-$26.18	43% 2826-3741 (6567)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yes	$0.06	$0.06	-$12.89	54% 21895-19024 (40919)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$12.8	$0.06	-$12.74	46% 1322-1534 (2856)
LE LesterDiamondCTR	Yesavg 6.9¢	$475.4	$0.05	-$115.67	63% 5496-3250 (8746)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.12	$0.03	-$0.09	45% 4173-5089 (9262)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yes	$145.79	$0.03	-$34.1	36% 1963-3493 (5456)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.1	$0.02	-$0.08	18% 4116-19342 (23458)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$1.67	$0.01	-$1.67	40% 118-177 (295)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0	$0	+$0	32% 6353-13252 (19605)
TY TyshaCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$117.85	$0	-$36.22	72% 8570-3385 (11955)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.71

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$60.26

Record

43%

3031-3985 (7016)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$76.62

Record

59%

10657-7345 (18002)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$42.83

Record

49%

8173-8423 (16596)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.31

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$26.18

Record

43%

2826-3741 (6567)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$12.89

Record

54%

21895-19024 (40919)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.8

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$12.74

Record

46%

1322-1534 (2856)

LesterDiamondCTR

Yes

Invested

$475.4

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$115.67

Record

63%

5496-3250 (8746)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.09

Record

45%

4173-5089 (9262)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.79

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$34.1

Record

36%

1963-3493 (5456)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.08

Record

18%

4116-19342 (23458)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.67

Record

40%

118-177 (295)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

6353-13252 (19605)

TyshaCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.85

Value

PnL

-$36.22

Record

72%

8570-3385 (11955)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.