Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $0 held · ends Jan 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jan 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.44

Combined PnL

-$54.65

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.44

Total Shares296

Combined PnL-$54.65

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME merodCTR<$100	Yes	$0.23	$0.23	-$15.15	42% 2910-4011 (6921)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.12	$0.12	+$0	17% 4208-19852 (24060)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yes	$145.75	$0.08	-$39.52	36% 1990-3558 (5548)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.11	$0.01	+$0.01	32% 6357-13258 (19615)
VI VictornixCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0	$0.01	+$0.01	11% 67-525 (592)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$15.15

Record

42%

2910-4011 (6921)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

4208-19852 (24060)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.75

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$39.52

Record

36%

1990-3558 (5548)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

32%

6357-13258 (19615)

VictornixCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

11%

67-525 (592)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.