Will Chen Ting-fei win the next Tainan Mayor election?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$1.1K
-$18.82
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-23 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 96¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$11.29 | — 4-3 (7) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Noavg 2.9¢ | $7.45 | $5.38 | -$2.07 | 39% 1005-1573 (2578) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $4.8 | $2.52 | -$2.28 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $3.2 | $1.68 | -$1.52 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $2.4 | $1.26 | -$1.14 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $1.08 | $0.57 | -$0.51 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,083.97
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$11.29
Record
—
4-3 (7)
Invested
$7.45
Value
$5.38
PnL
-$2.07
Record
39%
1005-1573 (2578)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$2.52
PnL
-$2.28
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$1.68
PnL
-$1.52
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$1.26
PnL
-$1.14
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$0.51
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.