Will Chen Chin-chuan win the next Penghu County Magistrate election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $357 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$356.58
-$0.14
99.8¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $177.67 | $177.02 | -$0.65 | 84% 43-8 (51) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $83.83 | $83.54 | -$0.29 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $74.74 | $74.59 | -$0.15 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.89 | -$0.07 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.51 | $1.54 | +$1.03 | 12% 21-155 (176) |
Invested
$177.67
Value
$177.02
PnL
-$0.65
Record
84%
43-8 (51)
Invested
$83.83
Value
$83.54
PnL
-$0.29
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$74.74
Value
$74.59
PnL
-$0.15
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.89
PnL
-$0.07
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.51
Value
$1.54
PnL
+$1.03
Record
12%
21-155 (176)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.