Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Chen Chen-chung win the next Penghu County Magistrate election?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 26¢ · $187 held · ends Nov 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$187.12
$90.33
Research grade
AvoidNo at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $35.6 | $69.42 | +$33.82 | 84% 43-8 (51) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.2¢ | $22.2 | $42.9 | +$20.7 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $16.8 | $32.76 | +$15.96 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 20.4¢ | $15.3 | $29.25 | +$13.95 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $4.2 | $7.8 | +$3.6 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $2.69 | $4.99 | +$2.3 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
Invested
$35.6
Value
$69.42
PnL
+$33.82
Record
84%
43-8 (51)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$22.2
Value
$42.9
PnL
+$20.7
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$32.76
PnL
+$15.96
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$29.25
PnL
+$13.95
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
$7.8
PnL
+$3.6
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$2.69
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$2.3
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.