Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 39¢ · $3K held · ends Jun 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$2.6K
$434.26
31.9¢ → 38.5¢
+21% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR | Noavg 31.7¢ | $1.6K | $2.1K | +$381.46 | 43% 483-634 (1117) |
 probabilityCTR | Noavg 31.7¢ | $195 | $261.79 | +$42.15 | 40% 1536-2269 (3805) |
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 59¢ | $300 | $184.5 | +$7.5 | 34% 602-1160 (1762) |
 HaradwaithCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $188.11 | $57.16 | -$0.74 | 41% 6396-9374 (15770) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $16 | $21.25 | +$3.25 | 65% 958-515 (1473) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $8.98 | $9.75 | +$0.76 | 77% 12530-3845 (16375) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.4¢ | $1.36 | $1.23 | -$0.13 | 18% 362-1675 (2037) |
Invested
$1,624.25
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$381.46
Record
43%
483-634 (1117)
probabilityCTRInvested
$195
Value
$261.79
PnL
+$42.15
Record
40%
1536-2269 (3805)
extractive-manateeInvested
$300
Value
$184.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
34%
602-1160 (1762)
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$188.11
Value
$57.16
PnL
-$0.74
Record
41%
6396-9374 (15770)
Invested
$16
Value
$21.25
PnL
+$3.25
Record
65%
958-515 (1473)
Invested
$8.98
Value
$9.75
PnL
+$0.76
Record
77%
12530-3845 (16375)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$0.13
Record
18%
362-1675 (2037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.