Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 91¢ · $1K held · ended Aug 19
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$1.5K
-$135.69
87.6¢ → 90.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
264h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
21 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 twinna | Yesavg 86.8¢ | $691.26 | $720.62 | +$29.35 | 50% 91-90 (181) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 12.7¢ | $609.44 | $465.28 | -$144.16 | 53% 1100-980 (2080) |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 90¢ | $219.02 | $220.25 | +$1.22 | 42% 5193-7116 (12309) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $71.04 | $56.84 | -$14.21 | 39% 1759-2790 (4549) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.9¢ | $41.31 | $33.42 | -$7.89 | 36% 2027-3621 (5648) |
twinnaInvested
$691.26
Value
$720.62
PnL
+$29.35
Record
50%
91-90 (181)
Invested
$609.44
Value
$465.28
PnL
-$144.16
Record
53%
1100-980 (2080)
Invested
$219.02
Value
$220.25
PnL
+$1.22
Record
42%
5193-7116 (12309)
Invested
$71.04
Value
$56.84
PnL
-$14.21
Record
39%
1759-2790 (4549)
Invested
$41.31
Value
$33.42
PnL
-$7.89
Record
36%
2027-3621 (5648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.