Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

Combined PnL

-$122.16

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1

Total Shares1,993

Combined PnL-$122.16

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

101h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$0.64	$0.64	-$66.34	47% 3852-4312 (8164)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$25.42	$0.24	-$25.18	38% 1235-2012 (3247)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$19.94	$0.04	-$19.9	40% 6571-9852 (16423)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$6.26	$0.03	-$6.24	48% 1991-2135 (4126)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$11.16	$0.02	-$2.09	51% 2598-2533 (5131)
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.06	$0.01	-$1.16	35% 1841-3407 (5248)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.11	— 6-1 (7)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0.02	17% 4506-22060 (26566)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$12.4	$0.01	-$1.12	49% 6588-6939 (13527)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$66.34

Record

47%

3852-4312 (8164)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.42

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$25.18

Record

38%

1235-2012 (3247)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.94

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$19.9

Record

40%

6571-9852 (16423)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.26

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.24

Record

48%

1991-2135 (4126)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.16

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.09

Record

51%

2598-2533 (5131)

PiEDawgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.16

Record

35%

1841-3407 (5248)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.11

Record

—

6-1 (7)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.02

Record

17%

4506-22060 (26566)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.4

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.12

Record

49%

6588-6939 (13527)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

101h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.