Will Celtic win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 97¢ · $299 held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$299.16

Combined PnL

-$109.41

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 97.3¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$270.56

Total Shares278

Combined PnL-$109.49

Yes6 traders

Total Value$28.6

Total Shares1,188

Combined PnL+$0.07

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

155h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 99.4¢	$103.81	$102.09	-$1.73	57% 41573-31331 (72904)
balthazar	Noavg 99.7¢	$301.77	$91.26	-$106.06	30% 35522-84044 (119566)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.6¢	$104.54	$72.98	-$1.65	55% 25592-21266 (46858)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$10.29	$9.89	-$0.35	30% 2958-6849 (9807)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$7.8	$8.69	+$0.89	57% 25537-19072 (44609)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.78	$7.32	-$0.26	62% 35967-22489 (58456)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$7.82	$4.24	-$0.05	45% 32135-39276 (71411)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yes	$1.29	$1.29	-$0.05	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	$1.15	$1.15	-$0.14	32% 8615-18479 (27094)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.1	$0.26	-$0.03	17% 246-1180 (1426)

Haradwaith

Invested

$103.81

Value

$102.09

PnL

-$1.73

Record

57%

41573-31331 (72904)

balthazar

Invested

$301.77

Value

$91.26

PnL

-$106.06

Record

30%

35522-84044 (119566)

graynotebook19

Invested

$104.54

Value

$72.98

PnL

-$1.65

Record

55%

25592-21266 (46858)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.29

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0.35

Record

30%

2958-6849 (9807)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

$8.69

PnL

+$0.89

Record

57%

25537-19072 (44609)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.78

Value

$7.32

PnL

-$0.26

Record

62%

35967-22489 (58456)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$7.82

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$0.05

Record

45%

32135-39276 (71411)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.29

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.14

Record

32%

8615-18479 (27094)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.03

Record

17%

246-1180 (1426)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

155h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.