Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Celtic finish first in UEL league phase?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $449 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$449.42

Combined PnL

$98.44

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$449.42

Total Shares3,497

Combined PnL+$98.44

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yes	$215.11	$215.11	-$39.02	31% 3280-7135 (10415)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.09	$87.44	+$87.34	47% 3839-4297 (8136)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$8.92	$51.4	+$42.48	40% 6551-9831 (16382)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.53	$45.73	-$8.29	50% 925-910 (1835)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.14	$11.82	-$2.14	23% 1801-6044 (7845)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$9.12	+$9.1	27% 2539-6898 (9437)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$6.43	+$6.39	17% 1353-6563 (7916)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yes	$6.43	$6.43	-$0.58	28% 576-1487 (2063)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$5.86	+$5	61% 864-548 (1412)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$5.78	-$1.05	49% 6579-6938 (13517)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$2.57	-$0.47	16% 389-1973 (2362)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$1.73	$1.73	-$0.31	25% 472-1449 (1921)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$215.11

Value

$215.11

PnL

-$39.02

Record

31%

3280-7135 (10415)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$87.44

PnL

+$87.34

Record

47%

3839-4297 (8136)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.92

Value

$51.4

PnL

+$42.48

Record

40%

6551-9831 (16382)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.53

Value

$45.73

PnL

-$8.29

Record

50%

925-910 (1835)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$11.82

PnL

-$2.14

Record

23%

1801-6044 (7845)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$9.1

Record

27%

2539-6898 (9437)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$6.43

PnL

+$6.39

Record

17%

1353-6563 (7916)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.43

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

576-1487 (2063)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$5

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$5.78

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

6579-6938 (13517)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$0.47

Record

16%

389-1973 (2362)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.31

Record

25%

472-1449 (1921)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.