Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Celta Vigo finish first in UEL league phase?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $27 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$26.78

Combined PnL

-$5.97

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$26.78

Total Shares1,488

Combined PnL-$5.97

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.09	$7.75	+$7.65	47% 3841-4297 (8138)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$8.92	$7.2	-$1.72	40% 6553-9836 (16389)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.53	$6.41	-$8.29	50% 925-910 (1835)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$1.28	+$1.25	27% 2541-6899 (9440)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$0.9	+$0.87	17% 1355-6567 (7922)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yes	$0.9	$0.9	-$0.58	28% 576-1487 (2063)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$0.82	-$0.04	61% 864-548 (1412)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.81	-$1.05	49% 6582-6938 (13520)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.36	-$0.47	16% 389-1977 (2366)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$3.6	$0.36	-$3.59	68% 740-356 (1096)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$7.65

Record

47%

3841-4297 (8138)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.92

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$1.72

Record

40%

6553-9836 (16389)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.53

Value

$6.41

PnL

-$8.29

Record

50%

925-910 (1835)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$1.25

Record

27%

2541-6899 (9440)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.87

Record

17%

1355-6567 (7922)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

576-1487 (2063)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$0.04

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

6582-6938 (13520)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.47

Record

16%

389-1977 (2366)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$3.59

Record

68%

740-356 (1096)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.