Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Carson Benge win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 16¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 19

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sat, Dec 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$36.83

Smart Money Entry

13.8¢ → 15.9¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares6,504

Combined PnL-$46.22

No3 traders

Total Value$203.28

Total Shares239

Combined PnL+$9.39

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 10.7¢	$1.4K	$441.32	-$228.02	48% 6887-7538 (14425)
macrosteaksCTR	Yes	$379.18	$379.18	+$131.49	55% 3434-2832 (6266)
GR grinder1011CTR	Yesavg 25.9¢	$36.39	$142.5	+$13.17	38% 120-198 (318)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$3.01	$85	+$12.97	54% 22016-19110 (41126)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$85.01	$82.58	-$2.43	37% 205-356 (561)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$8.45	$49.08	+$40.63	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100	Noavg 83.2¢	$36.86	$35.7	-$1.16	53% 4028-3565 (7593)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.1¢	$8.68	$5.4	-$3.49	49% 2617-2677 (5294)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,429.85

Value

$441.32

PnL

-$228.02

Record

48%

6887-7538 (14425)

macrosteaksCTR

Yes

Invested

$379.18

Value

$379.18

PnL

+$131.49

Record

55%

3434-2832 (6266)

grinder1011CTR

Yes

Invested

$36.39

Value

$142.5

PnL

+$13.17

Record

38%

120-198 (318)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$3.01

Value

$85

PnL

+$12.97

Record

54%

22016-19110 (41126)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$85.01

Value

$82.58

PnL

-$2.43

Record

37%

205-356 (561)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.45

Value

$49.08

PnL

+$40.63

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

YouSayUpISayDown<$100

Invested

$36.86

Value

$35.7

PnL

-$1.16

Record

53%

4028-3565 (7593)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.68

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$3.49

Record

49%

2617-2677 (5294)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.6%

15.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$468.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

568.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.