Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 18 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

18 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (95%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $23 held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 95%

Total Value

$22.74

Combined PnL

-$153.88

Smart Money Entry

2.2¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 19 top traders (95%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$20.1

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$6.42

Yes18 traders

Total Value$2.64

Total Shares5,279

Combined PnL-$147.46

No — 5%Yes — 95%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 95% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$97.33	$20.1	-$6.42	49% 8980-9523 (18503)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$28.08	$1.05	-$27.04	42% 3192-4377 (7569)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.5K	$0.52	-$60.31	75% 13139-4322 (17461)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$472.24	$0.24	-$13.65	40% 304-464 (768)
KO korda77CTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$412.75	$0.2	-$11.61	44% 6615-8264 (14879)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	$0.08	$0.08	-$4.34	61% 15012-9516 (24528)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$4.09	$0.07	-$4.02	47% 783-900 (1683)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$4.05	$0.07	-$3.98	30% 2495-5948 (8443)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$3.32	$0.06	-$3.27	43% 3866-5215 (9081)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$3.32	$0.06	-$3.27	32% 442-949 (1391)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$1.58	$0.06	-$1.52	33% 479-988 (1467)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$2.34	$0.06	-$3.27	33% 487-997 (1484)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$2.37	$0.06	-$3.27	32% 472-993 (1465)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$2.07	$0.04	-$2.03	39% 572-895 (1467)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$2.07	$0.04	-$2.03	33% 345-712 (1057)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$1.85	$0.03	-$1.82	33% 335-671 (1006)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.47	$0.03	-$1.45	22% 244-863 (1107)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.43	$0.01	-$0.43	25% 1751-5390 (7141)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.17	$0	-$0.17	27% 7006-19139 (26145)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$97.33

Value

$20.1

PnL

-$6.42

Record

49%

8980-9523 (18503)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.08

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$27.04

Record

42%

3192-4377 (7569)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,464.43

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$60.31

Record

75%

13139-4322 (17461)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Yes

Invested

$472.24

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$13.65

Record

40%

304-464 (768)

korda77CTR

Yes

Invested

$412.75

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$11.61

Record

44%

6615-8264 (14879)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$4.34

Record

61%

15012-9516 (24528)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.09

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$4.02

Record

47%

783-900 (1683)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.05

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.98

Record

30%

2495-5948 (8443)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.27

Record

43%

3866-5215 (9081)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.27

Record

32%

442-949 (1391)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.58

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.52

Record

33%

479-988 (1467)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.27

Record

33%

487-997 (1484)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.27

Record

32%

472-993 (1465)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.03

Record

39%

572-895 (1467)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.03

Record

33%

345-712 (1057)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.82

Record

33%

335-671 (1006)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.45

Record

22%

244-863 (1107)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.43

Record

25%

1751-5390 (7141)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

PnL

-$0.17

Record

27%

7006-19139 (26145)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 19 top traders (95%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

95% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 95% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.