Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $227 held · ends Apr 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$227.19
-$359.38
1.6¢ → 0.1¢
-91% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+66 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
740h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
15 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.7¢ | $188.99 | $189.13 | +$0.33 | 77% 11690-3585 (15275) |
DO donthackmeCTR | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $186.51 | $16.23 | -$170.29 | 73% 11083-4091 (15174) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $136.19 | $11.85 | -$124.34 | 56% 18365-14704 (33069) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $37.16 | $4.03 | -$33.13 | 38% 2935-4691 (7626) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $6.8 | $1.8 | -$5 | 21% 2284-8696 (10980) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $7.78 | $1.74 | -$6.03 | 36% 1887-3307 (5194) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $18.48 | $1.61 | -$16.87 | 43% 2040-2652 (4692) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $4.44 | $0.39 | -$4.05 | 17% 1026-4952 (5978) |
Invested
$188.99
Value
$189.13
PnL
+$0.33
Record
77%
11690-3585 (15275)
Invested
$186.51
Value
$16.23
PnL
-$170.29
Record
73%
11083-4091 (15174)
Invested
$136.19
Value
$11.85
PnL
-$124.34
Record
56%
18365-14704 (33069)
Invested
$37.16
Value
$4.03
PnL
-$33.13
Record
38%
2935-4691 (7626)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$5
Record
21%
2284-8696 (10980)
Invested
$7.78
Value
$1.74
PnL
-$6.03
Record
36%
1887-3307 (5194)
Invested
$18.48
Value
$1.61
PnL
-$16.87
Record
43%
2040-2652 (4692)
Invested
$4.44
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$4.05
Record
17%
1026-4952 (5978)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.