Will Canyon win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 29

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$37.93

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 83.5¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,200

Combined PnL+$34.3

Yes2 traders

Total Value$22.19

Total Shares298

Combined PnL+$3.62

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 88¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$53.56	51% 327-314 (641)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 84.9¢	$982.03	$951.29	+$102.2	45% 3029-3730 (6759)
Istaroth	Noavg 87¢	$474.77	$400	-$9.56	13% 603-4221 (4824)
dips.	Noavg 82.9¢	$200.86	$202.19	+$1.33	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$93.4	$59.51	-$5.98	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$57.49	$56.29	-$1.2	27% 659-1763 (2422)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 89.6¢	$100.29	$50	-$0.29	16% 1392-7374 (8766)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$47.83	$48.15	+$0.32	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$16.08	$15.98	-$0.1	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$8.89	$13.14	+$4.25	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$9.68	$9.04	-$0.63	55% 5255-4341 (9596)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$7.16	$8.3	+$1.13	37% 3313-5705 (9018)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$1,067.31

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$53.56

Record

51%

327-314 (641)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$982.03

Value

$951.29

PnL

+$102.2

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

Istaroth

Invested

$474.77

Value

$400

PnL

-$9.56

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

dips.

Invested

$200.86

Value

$202.19

PnL

+$1.33

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$93.4

Value

$59.51

PnL

-$5.98

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$57.49

Value

$56.29

PnL

-$1.2

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

WarriorH

Invested

$100.29

Value

$50

PnL

-$0.29

Record

16%

1392-7374 (8766)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$47.83

Value

$48.15

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$16.08

Value

$15.98

PnL

-$0.1

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.89

Value

$13.14

PnL

+$4.25

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.04

PnL

-$0.63

Record

55%

5255-4341 (9596)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$7.16

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$1.13

Record

37%

3313-5705 (9018)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.1%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.