Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Canva have the highest private market valuation at the end of November?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.34

Combined PnL

-$264.44

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.34

Total Shares2,682

Combined PnL-$264.44

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yes	$0.45	$0.45	-$88.56	46% 6652-7812 (14464)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$48	$0.42	-$81.9	47% 47657-54240 (101897)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.6	$0.24	-$47.16	25% 697-2083 (2780)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	-$14.02	50% 21617-21513 (43130)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.89	$0.07	-$13.43	23% 2598-8904 (11502)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$7.67	$0.06	-$11.99	27% 3504-9338 (12842)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.06	$0.02	-$4.28	16% 419-2247 (2666)
broskyeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2.01	$0.01	-$2	43% 176-238 (414)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$1.1	22% 3495-12141 (15636)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$88.56

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$81.9

Record

47%

47657-54240 (101897)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$47.16

Record

25%

697-2083 (2780)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$14.02

Record

50%

21617-21513 (43130)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.43

Record

23%

2598-8904 (11502)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.67

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.99

Record

27%

3504-9338 (12842)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.28

Record

16%

419-2247 (2666)

broskyeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2

Record

43%

176-238 (414)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.1

Record

22%

3495-12141 (15636)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.