Will Candidate B win the next Taipei Mayor election?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 28

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Sat, Nov 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,458

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anothercoin	Yes	$667.11	$667.11	+$0	49% 752-789 (1541)
KO korda77	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.81	$652.5	+$650.69	44% 6563-8231 (14794)
PO pollo07	Yes	$495.74	$495.74	+$0	33% 470-950 (1420)
FO forgotmydinner	Yesavg 1.7¢	$16.55	$480	+$463.45	17% 93-445 (538)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 1.9¢	$12.12	$317.45	+$305.32	27% 6972-19073 (26045)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yes	$274.45	$274.45	+$0	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
PI PiEDawg	Yesavg 0¢	$0.04	$219.58	+$219.54	49% 1785-1860 (3645)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Yes	$89.51	$89.51	+$0	33% 320-641 (961)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yes	$32.46	$32.46	+$0	18% 354-1642 (1996)

anothercoin

Yes

Invested

$667.11

Value

$667.11

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

752-789 (1541)

korda77

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$652.5

PnL

+$650.69

Record

44%

6563-8231 (14794)

pollo07

Yes

Invested

$495.74

Value

$495.74

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

470-950 (1420)

forgotmydinner

Yes

Invested

$16.55

Value

$480

PnL

+$463.45

Record

17%

93-445 (538)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$12.12

Value

$317.45

PnL

+$305.32

Record

27%

6972-19073 (26045)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$274.45

Value

$274.45

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

PiEDawg

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$219.58

PnL

+$219.54

Record

49%

1785-1860 (3645)

Vale54holi<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.51

Value

$89.51

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

320-641 (961)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.46

Value

$32.46

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

354-1642 (1996)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.0%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$92.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

192.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.