Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in September 2026 be between -0.2% and -0.1%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 31¢ · $305 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
1 arb excluded
$305.29
-$30.88
45.2¢ → 31¢
-31% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoatARB<$100 | Noavg 50.2¢ | $97.44 | $131.18 | +$17.23 | 49% 552-581 (1133) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35¢ | $39.85 | $85.38 | +$29.03 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.2¢ | $62.12 | $45.79 | -$11.8 | |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $69.56 | $54.76 | -$14.8 | 40% 6503-9752 (16255) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $55.43 | $54.02 | -$1.17 | 48% 1350-1485 (2835) |
WA WarriorHCTR | Noavg 50¢ | $100.34 | $31.46 | -$19.23 | 17% 1307-6523 (7830) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $3.64 | $15 | +$11.36 | 17% 4487-21969 (26456) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $19.24 | $13.69 | -$5.55 | 16% 372-1945 (2317) |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $6.67 | $5.18 | -$1.49 | 23% 779-2543 (3322) |
YoungAlphaGoatARB<$100Invested
$97.44
Value
$131.18
PnL
+$17.23
Record
49%
552-581 (1133)
Both legs:
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$69.56
Value
$54.76
PnL
-$14.8
Record
40%
6503-9752 (16255)
Invested
$55.43
Value
$54.02
PnL
-$1.17
Record
48%
1350-1485 (2835)
Invested
$100.34
Value
$31.46
PnL
-$19.23
Record
17%
1307-6523 (7830)
2B9S<$100Invested
$3.64
Value
$15
PnL
+$11.36
Record
17%
4487-21969 (26456)
Invested
$19.24
Value
$13.69
PnL
-$5.55
Record
16%
372-1945 (2317)
Invested
$6.67
Value
$5.18
PnL
-$1.49
Record
23%
779-2543 (3322)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.