Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cameron Carr win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends May 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, May 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.19

Combined PnL

-$23.5

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.19

Total Shares2,187

Combined PnL-$23.5

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$11.06	$1	-$10.06	42% 565-794 (1359)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$6.06	$0.49	-$5.57	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$4.35	$0.35	-$4	50% 7809-7848 (15657)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$2.01	$0.16	-$1.85	55% 5874-4767 (10641)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.39	$0.11	-$1.28	25% 181-537 (718)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.39	$0.03	-$0.36	44% 4029-5217 (9246)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.32	$0.03	-$0.29	51% 218-210 (428)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.11	$0.01	-$0.1	35% 104-196 (300)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.06

Value

PnL

-$10.06

Record

42%

565-794 (1359)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.06

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$5.57

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$4

Record

50%

7809-7848 (15657)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.01

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.85

Record

55%

5874-4767 (10641)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.39

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$1.28

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.36

Record

44%

4029-5217 (9246)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

218-210 (428)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.1

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.