Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year contain "agent"?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.5K
$309.92
76¢ → 89.5¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 75.7¢ | $2.1K | $1.4K | +$372.76 | — 4-15 (19) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $75.51 | $34.68 | -$19.93 | 27% 498-1335 (1833) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $41.25 | $17.33 | -$23.93 | — 0-10 (10) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $17.19 | $9.98 | -$7.22 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $20.94 | $9.16 | -$11.78 | — 1-9 (10) |
Invested
$2,142.17
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$372.76
Record
—
4-15 (19)
Invested
$75.51
Value
$34.68
PnL
-$19.93
Record
27%
498-1335 (1833)
Invested
$41.25
Value
$17.33
PnL
-$23.93
Record
—
0-10 (10)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$17.19
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$7.22
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$20.94
Value
$9.16
PnL
-$11.78
Record
—
1-9 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.