Will "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4" be the #1 Steam Weekly Top Seller for the week of October 27 - November 3, 2026?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 53¢ · $920 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$920.11
$32.5
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 51.8¢ | $649.65 | $567.16 | -$16.15 | 21% 300-1140 (1440) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.8¢ | $293.52 | $300.59 | +$8.08 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.5¢ | $286.37 | $266.57 | -$24.22 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 47.6¢ | $270.29 | $302.27 | +$31.98 | 53% 6479-5682 (12161) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.9¢ | $83.8 | $50.67 | +$0.52 | 50% 1654-1640 (3294) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$649.65
Value
$567.16
PnL
-$16.15
Record
21%
300-1140 (1440)
Both legs:
Invested
$270.29
Value
$302.27
PnL
+$31.98
Record
53%
6479-5682 (12161)
Invested
$83.8
Value
$50.67
PnL
+$0.52
Record
50%
1654-1640 (3294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.