Will Caliste have the most kills at Worlds 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 72¢ · $147 held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$146.87
-$3.54
73.7¢ → 72¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $106.12 | $104.13 | -$1.99 | 57% 56-43 (99) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $14.2 | $14.4 | +$0.2 | 51% 4240-4094 (8334) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $14.4 | -$0.4 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $15.29 | $13.94 | -$1.35 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$106.12
Value
$104.13
PnL
-$1.99
Record
57%
56-43 (99)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14.2
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
51%
4240-4094 (8334)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$14.4
PnL
-$0.4
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$15.29
Value
$13.94
PnL
-$1.35
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.