Will Caleb Wilson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 94¢ · $443 held · ends May 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sat, May 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$442.75

Combined PnL

$77.01

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 93.8¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$370.21

Total Shares398

Combined PnL+$50.77

Yes5 traders

Total Value$72.52

Total Shares1,029

Combined PnL+$26.24

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

296h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 85.7¢	$109.13	$118.33	+$9.2	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80¢	$80	$92.95	+$12.95	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 7.9¢	$6.41	$47.08	+$51.05	58% 16798-12127 (28925)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$47.26	$46.78	-$0.48	26% 554-1607 (2161)
AN ancianoCTR	Yes	$440.2	$42.33	+$47.46	54% 1415-1224 (2639)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 92.7¢	$115.36	$37.18	-$23.14	54% 12396-10601 (22997)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 89¢	$26.7	$27.88	+$1.18	58% 15784-11478 (27262)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$14.98	$14.98	-$5.06	— 4-0 (4)
saintaphextwinCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$16.98	$10.49	-$7.74	38% 418-682 (1100)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.1¢	$11.3	$3.93	-$7.37	55% 3175-2632 (5807)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.6¢	$1.84	$0.78	-$1.06	58% 21138-15369 (36507)

smallreceipt

Invested

$109.13

Value

$118.33

PnL

+$9.2

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$80

Value

$92.95

PnL

+$12.95

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$47.08

PnL

+$51.05

Record

58%

16798-12127 (28925)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$47.26

Value

$46.78

PnL

-$0.48

Record

26%

554-1607 (2161)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$440.2

Value

$42.33

PnL

+$47.46

Record

54%

1415-1224 (2639)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$115.36

Value

$37.18

PnL

-$23.14

Record

54%

12396-10601 (22997)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$26.7

Value

$27.88

PnL

+$1.18

Record

58%

15784-11478 (27262)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.98

Value

$14.98

PnL

-$5.06

Record

—

4-0 (4)

saintaphextwinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.98

Value

$10.49

PnL

-$7.74

Record

38%

418-682 (1100)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.3

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$7.37

Record

55%

3175-2632 (5807)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.84

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$1.06

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

296h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.1%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.