Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Caio Borralho be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (93%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 93%

Total Value

$4.49

Combined PnL

-$102.33

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 14 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$1.65

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0

Yes13 traders

Total Value$2.84

Total Shares3,845

Combined PnL-$102.33

No — 7%Yes — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.65	$1.65	+$0	39% 3006-4778 (7784)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$22.98	$1.1	-$21.88	41% 1299-1888 (3187)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$3.53	$0.95	-$3.49	56% 4264-3413 (7677)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$37.67	$0.36	-$37.31	61% 14390-9239 (23629)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yes	$0.21	$0.21	-$18.87	54% 21895-19024 (40919)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.32	$0.05	-$0.27	18% 4116-19342 (23458)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$5.55	$0.05	-$5.5	59% 10657-7345 (18002)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$4.41	$0.04	-$4.37	50% 472-466 (938)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$2.11	$0.02	-$2.09	40% 118-177 (295)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0	$0.01	+$0.01	32% 6353-13252 (19605)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.1	$0.01	-$0.08	72% 8570-3385 (11955)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$1.32	$0.01	-$1.3	22% 228-810 (1038)
VI VictorLudorumCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$110.6	$0.01	-$6.67	53% 6106-5421 (11527)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.53	$0.01	-$0.52	43% 3031-3985 (7016)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

3006-4778 (7784)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.98

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$21.88

Record

41%

1299-1888 (3187)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.53

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$3.49

Record

56%

4264-3413 (7677)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.67

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$37.31

Record

61%

14390-9239 (23629)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$18.87

Record

54%

21895-19024 (40919)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.27

Record

18%

4116-19342 (23458)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.55

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$5.5

Record

59%

10657-7345 (18002)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.41

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.37

Record

50%

472-466 (938)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.11

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.09

Record

40%

118-177 (295)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

32%

6353-13252 (19605)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.08

Record

72%

8570-3385 (11955)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.32

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.3

Record

22%

228-810 (1038)

VictorLudorumCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.6

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.67

Record

53%

6106-5421 (11527)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

43%

3031-3985 (7016)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 14 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.