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5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 76¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 15

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

29.1¢ → 75.5¢

+159% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,101

Combined PnL+$1.9K

No3 traders

Total Value$331.4

Total Shares1,353

Combined PnL-$550.3

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Anjun	Yesavg 29¢	$1.2K	$3.1K	+$1.9K	55% 5184-4271 (9455)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 67.9¢	$790.66	$285.34	-$505.31	53% 8527-7603 (16130)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	No	$13.18	$36.26	-$36.79	17% 1308-6529 (7837)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 37.9¢	$17.48	$17.37	-$0.12	23% 1780-6011 (7791)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$18	$9.8	-$8.2	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$7.35	$9.25	+$1.9	37% 3297-5674 (8971)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$4.08	$3.07	+$3.72	77% 12683-3868 (16551)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.02	$0.76	+$0.74	17% 4487-21970 (26457)

Anjun

Yes

Invested

$1,177.54

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

55%

5184-4271 (9455)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$790.66

Value

$285.34

PnL

-$505.31

Record

53%

8527-7603 (16130)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$13.18

Value

$36.26

PnL

-$36.79

Record

17%

1308-6529 (7837)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.48

Value

$17.37

PnL

-$0.12

Record

23%

1780-6011 (7791)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$8.2

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.35

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$1.9

Record

37%

3297-5674 (8971)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$3.07

PnL

+$3.72

Record

77%

12683-3868 (16551)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.76

PnL

+$0.74

Record

17%

4487-21970 (26457)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.