Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will ByteDance have the highest private market valuation at the end of November?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$1.71
-$194.83
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Mature
44h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $47.99 | $0.47 | -$91 | 53% 12585-11023 (23608) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.37 | $0.25 | -$50.36 | 27% 611-1673 (2284) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.1 | $0.1 | -$20.48 | 43% 8795-11441 (20236) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.89 | $0.07 | -$13.43 | 27% 2545-6952 (9497) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $9.34 | $0.06 | -$11.99 | 31% 3287-7149 (10436) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.13 | $0.02 | -$4.28 | 17% 396-1983 (2379) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.26 | $0.02 | -$2.49 | 37% 4059-6782 (10841) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.11 | $0 | -$0.8 | 30% 502-1181 (1683) |
Invested
$47.99
Value
$0.47
PnL
-$91
Record
53%
12585-11023 (23608)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$50.36
Record
27%
611-1673 (2284)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$20.48
Record
43%
8795-11441 (20236)
Invested
$0.89
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$13.43
Record
27%
2545-6952 (9497)
Invested
$9.34
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$11.99
Record
31%
3287-7149 (10436)
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.28
Record
17%
396-1983 (2379)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.49
Record
37%
4059-6782 (10841)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.8
Record
30%
502-1181 (1683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.