Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?

16 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$2.68

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 16 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,580

Combined PnL+$2.68

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

213h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.5¢	$631.96	$632.84	+$0.88	51% 4634-4520 (9154)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.4¢	$248.52	$249	+$0.48	30% 2683-6207 (8890)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99.2¢	$125.1	$125.67	+$0.56	26% 858-2483 (3341)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$91.43	$91.36	-$0.07	27% 933-2514 (3447)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$74.63	$74.7	+$0.08	29% 881-2138 (3019)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$68.73	$68.66	-$0.07	25% 96-283 (379)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$51.01	$51.06	+$0.05	28% 522-1370 (1892)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$51.01	$51.06	+$0.05	27% 499-1317 (1816)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$49.6	$49.8	+$0.2	24% 75-243 (318)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$47.42	$47.61	+$0.19	28% 521-1360 (1881)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99¢	$40.59	$40.84	+$0.25	16% 63-330 (393)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.83	$29.88	+$0.05	15% 65-373 (438)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$23	$22.98	-$0.02	49% 86-88 (174)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$15.2	$15.19	-$0.02	42% 374-507 (881)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$11.94	$11.95	+$0.01	79% 348-95 (443)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$11.11	$11.18	+$0.07	53% 5637-5072 (10709)

balthazar

Invested

$631.96

Value

$632.84

PnL

+$0.88

Record

51%

4634-4520 (9154)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$248.52

Value

$249

PnL

+$0.48

Record

30%

2683-6207 (8890)

graynotebook19

Invested

$125.1

Value

$125.67

PnL

+$0.56

Record

26%

858-2483 (3341)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$91.43

Value

$91.36

PnL

-$0.07

Record

27%

933-2514 (3447)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$74.63

Value

$74.7

PnL

+$0.08

Record

29%

881-2138 (3019)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$68.73

Value

$68.66

PnL

-$0.07

Record

25%

96-283 (379)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$51.01

Value

$51.06

PnL

+$0.05

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$51.01

Value

$51.06

PnL

+$0.05

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$49.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

24%

75-243 (318)

akroll<$100

Invested

$47.42

Value

$47.61

PnL

+$0.19

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$40.59

Value

$40.84

PnL

+$0.25

Record

16%

63-330 (393)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.83

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$0.05

Record

15%

65-373 (438)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$23

Value

$22.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

86-88 (174)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$15.19

PnL

-$0.02

Record

42%

374-507 (881)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.94

Value

$11.95

PnL

+$0.01

Record

79%

348-95 (443)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.11

Value

$11.18

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

5637-5072 (10709)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 16 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

213h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.