Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $15 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$14.56
-$979.51
3.4¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forgotmydinnerCTR | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $777.1 | $10.1 | -$767 | 19% 49-212 (261) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $167.5 | $3.82 | -$163.69 | 45% 2314-2839 (5153) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $25.19 | $0.33 | -$24.86 | 25% 181-537 (718) |
0X 0xd32ce89f16509d3c8f8b5e9750305a5b2bc2a4c2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $12.5 | $0.16 | -$12.34 | 29% 641-1562 (2203) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $7.69 | $0.1 | -$7.59 | 17% 1023-4939 (5962) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $4.08 | $0.05 | -$4.03 | 44% 4029-5217 (9246) |
Invested
$777.1
Value
$10.1
PnL
-$767
Record
19%
49-212 (261)
Invested
$167.5
Value
$3.82
PnL
-$163.69
Record
45%
2314-2839 (5153)
Invested
$25.19
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$24.86
Record
25%
181-537 (718)
Invested
$12.5
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$12.34
Record
29%
641-1562 (2203)
Invested
$7.69
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$7.59
Record
17%
1023-4939 (5962)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$4.03
Record
44%
4029-5217 (9246)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.