Will Buffalo Bills win the 2026 AFC East?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 77¢ · $331 held · ends Jan 18, 2027

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Mon, Jan 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$331.25

Combined PnL

$43.06

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 76.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$330.79

Total Shares465

Combined PnL+$43.26

No1 trader

Total Value$0.46

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0.2

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

810h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 76.9¢	$124.36	$111.09	+$21.27	45% 3028-3723 (6751)
DEGENKHAN	Yesavg 79.5¢	$100.95	$89.53	-$3.17	67% 1172-589 (1761)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 55.5¢	$44.3	$63.12	+$18.81	51% 2606-2542 (5148)
AU auros2<$100	Yesavg 69.1¢	$37.36	$41.33	+$3.97	— 6-1 (7)
AN anciano<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$23.35	$25.72	+$2.37	55% 1473-1229 (2702)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$0.56	$0.46	-$0.2	40% 1595-2386 (3981)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$124.36

Value

$111.09

PnL

+$21.27

Record

45%

3028-3723 (6751)

DEGENKHAN

Yes

Invested

$100.95

Value

$89.53

PnL

-$3.17

Record

67%

1172-589 (1761)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.3

Value

$63.12

PnL

+$18.81

Record

51%

2606-2542 (5148)

auros2<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.36

Value

$41.33

PnL

+$3.97

Record

—

6-1 (7)

anciano<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.35

Value

$25.72

PnL

+$2.37

Record

55%

1473-1229 (2702)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.2

Record

40%

1595-2386 (3981)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

810h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.