Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Bubba Chandler win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$0.81
-$32.18
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.75 | $0.75 | -$31.93 | 47% 8092-9266 (17358) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.11 | $0.03 | -$0.08 | 79% 11970-3164 (15134) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.15 | $0.02 | -$0.13 | 60% 11493-7614 (19107) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.06 | $0.01 | -$0.05 | 30% 2124-4928 (7052) |
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$31.93
Record
47%
8092-9266 (17358)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.08
Record
79%
11970-3164 (15134)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.13
Record
60%
11493-7614 (19107)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.05
Record
30%
2124-4928 (7052)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.