Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $666 held · ended Sep 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$666.37
$53.61
83.6¢ → 89.2¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
591h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rabbit007 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $290.24 | $299.92 | +$12.85 | 53% 349-305 (654) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 85.4¢ | $227.91 | $235.75 | +$10.34 | 53% 1055-950 (2005) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $113.44 | $64.22 | +$11.77 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
SU supersmard<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $39 | $53.58 | +$14.58 | 39% 43-68 (111) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $8.83 | $12.9 | +$4.07 | 73% 2622-962 (3584) |
rabbit007Invested
$290.24
Value
$299.92
PnL
+$12.85
Record
53%
349-305 (654)
Invested
$227.91
Value
$235.75
PnL
+$10.34
Record
53%
1055-950 (2005)
Invested
$113.44
Value
$64.22
PnL
+$11.77
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
Invested
$39
Value
$53.58
PnL
+$14.58
Record
39%
43-68 (111)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$8.83
Value
$12.9
PnL
+$4.07
Record
73%
2622-962 (3584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.