Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bryce Harper win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.6

Combined PnL

-$97.76

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.6

Total Shares5,202

Combined PnL-$97.76

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$26.22	$0.68	-$25.64	49% 9048-9530 (18578)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$24.1	$0.66	-$23.44	60% 7178-4743 (11921)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$24.71	$0.64	-$24.08	79% 10611-2762 (13373)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$18.16	$0.47	-$17.69	43% 2778-3617 (6395)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.92	$0.07	-$2.85	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.42	$0.04	-$1.38	54% 113-96 (209)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$52.64	$0.02	-$1.91	54% 6080-5238 (11318)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.8	$0.02	-$0.78	55% 5874-4771 (10645)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.22

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$25.64

Record

49%

9048-9530 (18578)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.1

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$23.44

Record

60%

7178-4743 (11921)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.71

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$24.08

Record

79%

10611-2762 (13373)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.16

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$17.69

Record

43%

2778-3617 (6395)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.92

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.85

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.38

Record

54%

113-96 (209)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.91

Record

54%

6080-5238 (11318)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.78

Record

55%

5874-4771 (10645)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.