Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.86

Combined PnL

-$24.86

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.86

Total Shares1,728

Combined PnL-$24.86

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$12.31	$0.41	-$11.89	49% 7454-7779 (15233)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$4.09	$0.14	-$3.96	41% 1399-2008 (3407)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.92	$0.1	-$2.82	75% 234-77 (311)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.81	$0.06	-$1.75	30% 2189-5039 (7228)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.3	$0.04	-$1.25	31% 1408-3193 (4601)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.19	$0.04	-$1.15	55% 5875-4772 (10647)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.83	$0.03	-$0.8	30% 320-759 (1079)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.83	$0.03	-$0.8	30% 350-813 (1163)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.45	$0.01	-$0.43	54% 6081-5239 (11320)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.31

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$11.89

Record

49%

7454-7779 (15233)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.09

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$3.96

Record

41%

1399-2008 (3407)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.92

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.82

Record

75%

234-77 (311)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.75

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.25

Record

31%

1408-3193 (4601)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.15

Record

55%

5875-4772 (10647)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.8

Record

30%

320-759 (1079)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.8

Record

30%

350-813 (1163)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.43

Record

54%

6081-5239 (11320)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.