Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 84¢ · $3K held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$108.48

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 83.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,473

Combined PnL-$170.28

Yes4 traders

Total Value$144.59

Total Shares1,130

Combined PnL+$61.8

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

562h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hyperlong	Noavg 91.3¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$177.74	47% 324-369 (693)
NO northstock	Noavg 83.1¢	$379.69	$389	+$9.31	40% 256-391 (647)
Haradwaith	Noavg 79.9¢	$176.49	$174.39	-$2.1	40% 6535-9791 (16326)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$75.97	$75.97	+$15.61	— 4-0 (4)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$1.14	$35.46	+$34.31	45% 2980-3675 (6655)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$7.89	$26.76	+$18.87	58% 21230-15422 (36652)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$6.84	$7.09	+$0.25	77% 12697-3875 (16572)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$13.4	$6.4	-$7	53% 8568-7638 (16206)

Hyperlong

Invested

$2,635.97

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$177.74

Record

47%

324-369 (693)

northstock

Invested

$379.69

Value

$389

PnL

+$9.31

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

Haradwaith

Invested

$176.49

Value

$174.39

PnL

-$2.1

Record

40%

6535-9791 (16326)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.97

Value

$75.97

PnL

+$15.61

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$35.46

PnL

+$34.31

Record

45%

2980-3675 (6655)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.89

Value

$26.76

PnL

+$18.87

Record

58%

21230-15422 (36652)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$6.84

Value

$7.09

PnL

+$0.25

Record

77%

12697-3875 (16572)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.4

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$7

Record

53%

8568-7638 (16206)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

562h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.