Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $10 held · ends Nov 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$10.12

Combined PnL

-$92.13

Smart Money Entry

3¢ → 0.3¢

-90% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$10.12

Total Shares3,374

Combined PnL-$92.13

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Late

96h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$22.42	$2.22	-$20.2	44% 1811-2260 (4071)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$22.23	$2.2	-$20.03	48% 3413-3685 (7098)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$19.57	$1.94	-$17.63	28% 161-410 (571)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$12.44	$1.23	-$11.21	30% 255-588 (843)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$8.7	$0.86	-$7.84	31% 286-635 (921)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$5.5	$0.54	-$4.96	31% 307-668 (975)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$5.5	$0.54	-$4.96	32% 312-665 (977)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$4.94	$0.49	-$4.45	40% 384-571 (955)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.95	$0.09	-$0.85	29% 188-471 (659)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.42

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$20.2

Record

44%

1811-2260 (4071)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.23

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$20.03

Record

48%

3413-3685 (7098)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.57

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$17.63

Record

28%

161-410 (571)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.44

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$11.21

Record

30%

255-588 (843)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.7

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$7.84

Record

31%

286-635 (921)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$4.96

Record

31%

307-668 (975)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$4.96

Record

32%

312-665 (977)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.94

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$4.45

Record

40%

384-571 (955)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.85

Record

29%

188-471 (659)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Late

96h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7300.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

7400.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.