Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$194.78
$0.19
99.7¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $74.79 | $74.81 | +$0.02 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $71.01 | $71.12 | +$0.11 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $43.55 | $43.59 | +$0.04 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $5.13 | $5.13 | -$0 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.1 | $0.13 | +$0.03 | 16% 10-52 (62) |
Invested
$74.79
Value
$74.81
PnL
+$0.02
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$71.01
Value
$71.12
PnL
+$0.11
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
balthazar<$100Invested
$43.55
Value
$43.59
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
4487-4433 (8920)
Invested
$5.13
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$0
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.1
Value
$0.13
PnL
+$0.03
Record
16%
10-52 (62)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.