Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Ciudad Real in the 2026 Spanish general election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $225 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$225.01
$3.57
96.8¢ → 99.8¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GenaTheBondKilIer | Noavg 93¢ | $100 | $99.25 | +$6.25 | 51% 528-511 (1039) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $74.8 | $74.85 | +$0.05 | 49% 7454-7779 (15233) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $49.9 | $49.9 | -$0 | 49% 9048-9543 (18591) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $3.73 | $1.01 | -$2.72 | 51% 218-210 (428) |
GenaTheBondKilIerInvested
$100
Value
$99.25
PnL
+$6.25
Record
51%
528-511 (1039)
Invested
$74.8
Value
$74.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
7454-7779 (15233)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$49.9
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
9048-9543 (18591)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$1.01
PnL
-$2.72
Record
51%
218-210 (428)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.