Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Brian Schatz be the next US Senate Minority Leader?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Jan 3, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jan 3, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$4.1

Combined PnL

-$17.4

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$4.1

Total Shares1,367

Combined PnL-$17.4

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$8.14	$1.44	-$6.7	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$5.32	$0.94	-$4.38	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.53	$0.45	-$2.08	65% 444-243 (687)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.36	$0.36	+$0	28% 113-285 (398)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.54	$0.27	-$1.27	20% 782-3094 (3876)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.05	$0.19	-$0.86	79% 502-133 (635)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.79	$0.14	-$0.65	9% 3-30 (33)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.68	$0.12	-$0.56	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.68	$0.12	-$0.56	39% 1057-1631 (2688)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.42	$0.08	-$0.35	53% 1614-1416 (3030)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.14

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$6.7

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.32

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$4.38

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.53

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$2.08

Record

65%

444-243 (687)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

113-285 (398)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$1.27

Record

20%

782-3094 (3876)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.86

Record

79%

502-133 (635)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.65

Record

3-30 (33)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.56

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.56

Record

39%

1057-1631 (2688)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

1614-1416 (3030)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.