Will Brian Rodríguez (Club América) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Liga MX season?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$2.5K
$475.36
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thefakenick | Noavg 88.7¢ | $4.2K | $2.5K | +$512.86 | — 0-2 (2) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $6.58 | $1.1 | -$5.48 | 12% 22-156 (178) |
CR crckrCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.96 | $0.48 | -$0.48 | — |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $29.75 | $0.42 | -$29.33 | 23% 511-1698 (2209) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $2.25 | $0.03 | -$2.22 | 3% 1-28 (29) |
thefakenickInvested
$4,209.74
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$512.86
Record
—
0-2 (2)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6.58
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$5.48
Record
12%
22-156 (178)
Invested
$0.96
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$0.48
Record
—
Invested
$29.75
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$29.33
Record
23%
511-1698 (2209)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.22
Record
3%
1-28 (29)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.