Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Brian Ortega be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.35

Combined PnL

-$20.52

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.35

Total Shares450

Combined PnL-$20.52

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

157h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$13.32	$0.76	-$12.56	38% 2901-4738 (7639)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$5.89	$0.34	-$5.56	43% 5588-7271 (12859)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$2.63	$0.15	-$2.48	17% 246-1180 (1426)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$0	$0.08	+$0.08	36% 9048-16196 (25244)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.01	15% 5011-29434 (34445)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.32

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$12.56

Record

38%

2901-4738 (7639)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.89

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$5.56

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.63

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.48

Record

17%

246-1180 (1426)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

36%

9048-16196 (25244)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

15%

5011-29434 (34445)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

157h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7230.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

7330.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.