Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Brest win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$4.62
-$405.94
4.4¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forgotmydinnerCTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $136.36 | $1.5 | -$134.86 | 19% 49-210 (259) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $109.13 | $1.2 | -$107.93 | 92% 8456-738 (9194) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $85.12 | $0.94 | -$84.18 | 62% 13833-8580 (22413) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $62.46 | $0.78 | -$61.68 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $9.42 | $0.1 | -$9.31 | 17% 1014-4846 (5860) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $6.03 | $0.07 | -$5.96 | 44% 4014-5074 (9088) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $2.04 | $0.02 | -$2.02 | 55% 6018-4905 (10923) |
Invested
$136.36
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$134.86
Record
19%
49-210 (259)
LucerysCTRInvested
$109.13
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$107.93
Record
92%
8456-738 (9194)
Invested
$85.12
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$84.18
Record
62%
13833-8580 (22413)
Invested
$62.46
Value
$0.78
PnL
-$61.68
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
Invested
$9.42
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$9.31
Record
17%
1014-4846 (5860)
Invested
$6.03
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$5.96
Record
44%
4014-5074 (9088)
Invested
$2.04
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2.02
Record
55%
6018-4905 (10923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.