Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be less than 3.00%?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Jan 12, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$0.3
-$13.78
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
153h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $3.06 | $0.17 | -$6.43 | 31% 2584-5634 (8218) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.06 | $0.05 | -$2.68 | 52% 166-153 (319) |
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $3.22 | $0.05 | -$3.17 | 23% 52-171 (223) |
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.03 | -$1.26 | 34% 6256-12407 (18663) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $0.24 | $0 | -$0.24 | 35% 4440-8356 (12796) |
Invested
$3.06
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$6.43
Record
31%
2584-5634 (8218)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$2.68
Record
52%
166-153 (319)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$3.17
Record
23%
52-171 (223)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.26
Record
34%
6256-12407 (18663)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.24
Record
35%
4440-8356 (12796)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.