Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $314 held · ends Jan 13, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Jan 13, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$313.54

Combined PnL

-$8.12

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 96.8¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$305.29

Total Shares319

Combined PnL-$10.82

Yes5 traders

Total Value$8.25

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$2.7

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 93.3¢	$74.6	$105.75	-$0.69	53% 23528-20740 (44268)
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$98.2	$96.44	-$1.76	48% 1352-1491 (2843)
CR cry.eth2<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$75.3	$49.13	-$7.74	39% 10144-15757 (25901)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$47.78	$46.98	-$0.81	31% 4458-9740 (14198)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 91.6¢	$6.82	$6.99	+$0.17	77% 12686-3871 (16557)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.65	$5.72	+$5.08	17% 4496-22007 (26503)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$1.36	$1.21	-$0.15	19% 2872-12252 (15124)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$3.22	$1.11	-$2.11	19% 36-154 (190)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$0.19	$0.15	-$0.08	37% 4013-6774 (10787)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$0.06	$0.06	-$0.04	51% 154-147 (301)

cigarettes

Invested

$74.6

Value

$105.75

PnL

-$0.69

Record

53%

23528-20740 (44268)

SnapElectionAvoider<$100

Invested

$98.2

Value

$96.44

PnL

-$1.76

Record

48%

1352-1491 (2843)

cry.eth2<$100

Invested

$75.3

Value

$49.13

PnL

-$7.74

Record

39%

10144-15757 (25901)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$47.78

Value

$46.98

PnL

-$0.81

Record

31%

4458-9740 (14198)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$6.82

Value

$6.99

PnL

+$0.17

Record

77%

12686-3871 (16557)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$5.72

PnL

+$5.08

Record

17%

4496-22007 (26503)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$0.15

Record

19%

2872-12252 (15124)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.22

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$2.11

Record

19%

36-154 (190)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.08

Record

37%

4013-6774 (10787)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

154-147 (301)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.