Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 41¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 13, 2027

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Wed, Jan 13, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$143.28

Smart Money Entry

36.1¢ → 40.9¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$823.44

Total Shares1,859

Combined PnL+$149.71

No3 traders

Total Value$428.23

Total Shares673

Combined PnL-$6.43

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Yesavg 40.3¢	$669.93	$749.22	+$79.29	— 2-1 (3)
Istaroth	Noavg 56.1¢	$394.19	$299.18	-$32.72	25% 283-842 (1125)
FrozenParasite<$100	Noavg 45.8¢	$69.76	$96.08	+$26.33	55% 444-365 (809)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.85	$74.22	+$70.42	18% 3782-17083 (20865)
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100	Noavg 55¢	$33	$32.97	-$0.03	53% 3685-3204 (6889)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Yes

Invested

$669.93

Value

$749.22

PnL

+$79.29

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Istaroth

Invested

$394.19

Value

$299.18

PnL

-$32.72

Record

25%

283-842 (1125)

FrozenParasite<$100

Invested

$69.76

Value

$96.08

PnL

+$26.33

Record

55%

444-365 (809)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$74.22

PnL

+$70.42

Record

18%

3782-17083 (20865)

YouSayUpISayDown<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$32.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

3685-3204 (6889)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

40.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.