Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 88¢ · $806 held · ends Jan 13, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Wed, Jan 13, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$805.52

Combined PnL

$291.24

Smart Money Entry

77.1¢ → 88.3¢

+14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$698.06

Total Shares753

Combined PnL+$293.39

Yes4 traders

Total Value$107.46

Total Shares1,343

Combined PnL-$2.15

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

279h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456	Noavg 77.6¢	$238.4	$282.46	+$44.59	43% 2311-3103 (5414)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 79.3¢	$107.12	$124.2	+$17.08	58% 16798-12127 (28925)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 79¢	$73.11	$85.16	+$12.04	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
CR cry.eth2<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$84.88	$79.75	+$200.85	39% 10135-15757 (25892)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 16.4¢	$100.24	$66.68	-$33.55	48% 1350-1485 (2835)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$45.85	$55.2	+$9.35	58% 15784-11478 (27262)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$29.47	$36.8	+$7.33	43% 8732-11387 (20119)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$2.47	$36.39	+$33.91	55% 17-14 (31)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$17.44	$18.4	+$0.96	19% 2850-12163 (15013)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$13.53	$14.72	+$1.19	43% 10588-14062 (24650)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.16	$2.8	+$2.65	17% 4487-21969 (26456)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$6.74	$1.59	-$5.15	77% 12683-3867 (16550)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100	No	$1.38	$1.38	+$0	51% 152-146 (298)

123987456

Invested

$238.4

Value

$282.46

PnL

+$44.59

Record

43%

2311-3103 (5414)

northdrawer

Invested

$107.12

Value

$124.2

PnL

+$17.08

Record

58%

16798-12127 (28925)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$73.11

Value

$85.16

PnL

+$12.04

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

cry.eth2<$100

Invested

$84.88

Value

$79.75

PnL

+$200.85

Record

39%

10135-15757 (25892)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.24

Value

$66.68

PnL

-$33.55

Record

48%

1350-1485 (2835)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$45.85

Value

$55.2

PnL

+$9.35

Record

58%

15784-11478 (27262)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.47

Value

$36.8

PnL

+$7.33

Record

43%

8732-11387 (20119)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.47

Value

$36.39

PnL

+$33.91

Record

55%

17-14 (31)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$17.44

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$0.96

Record

19%

2850-12163 (15013)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$13.53

Value

$14.72

PnL

+$1.19

Record

43%

10588-14062 (24650)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$2.65

Record

17%

4487-21969 (26456)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.74

Value

$1.59

PnL

-$5.15

Record

77%

12683-3867 (16550)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

152-146 (298)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

279h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.8%

88.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.