Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be at least 7.00%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $231 held · ends Jan 12, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$231.41
-$1.22
99.6¢ → 99.1¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
172h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $89.64 | $89.15 | -$0.49 | 28% 2405-6142 (8547) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $74.68 | $74.29 | -$0.39 | 28% 825-2133 (2958) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $38.22 | $37.98 | -$0.25 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.72 | -$0.2 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.17 | $0.28 | +$0.11 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
Invested
$89.64
Value
$89.15
PnL
-$0.49
Record
28%
2405-6142 (8547)
Invested
$74.68
Value
$74.29
PnL
-$0.39
Record
28%
825-2133 (2958)
Invested
$38.22
Value
$37.98
PnL
-$0.25
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.72
PnL
-$0.2
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$0.11
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.