Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Bournemouth win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $30 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$30.04
-$150.71
0.8¢ → 0.1¢
-81% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
677h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $15 | $22.5 | +$7.5 | 41% 1281-1831 (3112) |
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $115.01 | $5.29 | -$109.72 | 11% 20-166 (186) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.42 | $1.42 | -$25.99 | 57% 3070-2358 (5428) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $17.62 | $0.63 | -$16.99 | 56% 14473-11230 (25703) |
DR DreamwireCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $5.71 | $0.2 | -$5.51 | 83% 2713-550 (3263) |
Invested
$15
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
41%
1281-1831 (3112)
Invested
$115.01
Value
$5.29
PnL
-$109.72
Record
11%
20-166 (186)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.42
Value
$1.42
PnL
-$25.99
Record
57%
3070-2358 (5428)
Invested
$17.62
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$16.99
Record
56%
14473-11230 (25703)
Invested
$5.71
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$5.51
Record
83%
2713-550 (3263)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.